NWS calling for a dusting of snow on Saturday.

Imagine if we got as much as in the picture!! There would be no bread and milk in Georgia for a month. :)

LOL!!! I told Kristi I thought it was appropriate to post a picture of multiple feet of snow for a dusting! :-)

12Z GFS is out and it's a big hit for Atlanta at about 132 hours (5/6th). Stay tuned...

At 850mb, it looks like a rain to snow event with widespread coverage of 2-4" (depending on ratio, changeover, etc) over all of Metro Atlanta.

This is the 5-6th time frame

So this would be a big adjustment for the 5th and 6th from what is being forecasted currently (low to mid 50's for high both days and mid to upper 30's for lows)?????
What is happening for such a big change in that 5 day out period?

Jon... that far out the NWS (and most every other media outlet) will trend toward climo. It is a normal mode of operation for them.

The models will go back and forth with this system over the next 5 days. It's not uncommon to see the models drop the storm only to bring it back within a few days. The exact track is still unknown and things will change between now and then.

Tracking these types of systems in the winter is what us winter weather weenies (WWW) love!

So, right now it is a dusting on Saturday and now a possibility for 2-4" middle of next week? Is that for our area or another one of those northern regions and mountains? It would be so nice to have a good 2-4" and a stay home day next week.

Right now it's a dusting over the weekend and some amount during the middle of next week. Nothing is in concrete right now for next week so I'll be passing along the results of the model outputs as they come in. We have lots of model runs to go before things will become clearer.

Finally we get snow, some dust is better than non at all. Keep reporting on those model outputs as the African in me can't wait for some snow on my deck. I've had to take the kids out of town and the country to enjoy the snow.

I'm getting cautiously excited about this upcoming storm after the weekend, might be one of those surprises that beats expectations.

Latest models are showing almost 0.5" of precip for next weeks system. We'll see where that leads.

For those that don't know, there are two pieces to determine how much snow falls for any given amount of liquid moisture. To get a REALLY ROUGH estimate, you can figure a 10-1 ratio. But under certain conditions the ratios can be higher or lower. Here's a great explanation of snow ratios: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/346/

Here's a great chart for doing your own calculations:
http://www.daculaweather.com/SnowMelt_Water.pdf

And because the freeze will occur on or after March 1, a Freeze Warning has been issued.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EST THU FEB 28 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY.

• LOCATIONS...MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

• TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

• TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

• IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OR NEWLY-BUDDED PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR
KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

The latest forecast discussion. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php
I try to read the upstream forecast discussions to get an idea what those NWS offices are thinking. It's like pieces to a puzzle!

On that page are links to the Area Forecast Discussions and Hazardous Weather Outlooks for every forecast office in the southeast.

And in regard to next weeks system...

OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STILL
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT 12Z ECMWF IS
ACTUALLY TRENDING CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS /KIND OF A SURPRISE...
USUALLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF/ WITH BRINGING
A COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY TO ADD THUNDER...BUT BOTH BRING THE
COLD CORE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGS
OVER 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY JUST
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREA. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY OUT THERE IN
FANTASYLAND BUT INTERESTING NONETHELESS...AND FORECAST TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED.

The National Weather Service (NWS) today announced it will change the alphabet-soup named “Hydrometeorological Prediction Center” (HPC) to the “Weather Prediction Center” (WPC) effective March 5.

The web address will also change which means I'll have things to fix. Just because people can't spell hydrometeorological...

Robert Gamble, meteorologist at WXSouth.com:

"Regardless, When well developed upper lows reach their inflection point (begin to bend) or turn negative tilt, then that's when the system deepens rapidly and pulls in cold aloft. So far no model has a good strong closed low with comma head look to it’s precip panel (but does explode over eastern NC). However, I won’t be surprised to see this upper low trend stronger with each run and more well developed. There is an excellent ridge developing behind it and there’s good wavelength spacing, so I see no reason not to deepen this upper low into 3 contours closed coming through the Southeast or Tenn. Valley or Mid-Atlantic. We will see."

Gotta say some of the best snows I've had to shovel off my driveway started out as "dustings" and just stuck around...

I still recall the first time "Spaghetti Junction" got dusted = fun had by all on the upper deck!

Thoughts from Robert Gamble late last night:
"Tonight's GFS model run is about as expected at WXSouth. The low sharpens up, becomes a "bowling" ball type of upper low and heads from Kansas City through Memphis through Atlanta and offshore the SC coast. The GFS always has trouble with surface temps and precip in this type of flow, so it doesn't show much snow outside of Atlanta or Memphis. The track of the 5H feature though is exquisite though for heavy wet snow through the Midsouth once you get on the northern and western shield of the system, so in time the model will adjust by adding much more snow in Tn, Al, northern MS, northern GA much of SC and NC and southeast VA. The system gets to 2 contours cutoff in SC which would pound most of NC with heavy snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday. As the system deepens near western TN I'd draw a secondary maximum there. So far though, this is still too far out in time, but all the models have trended toward a Southeast Upper Low, but I suspect the ECMWF model will still have a Virginia, NC, TN, WV hit as well. I'll continue to monitor."

LOL!!! Can't help but laugh:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1238 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

VALID 12Z MONDAY MAR 04 2013 - 12Z FRIDAY MAR 08 2013

A BLOCKING PATTERN AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
ENERGETIC VORTICES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THIS
PERIOD ASTRIDE 40N. TWO PORTIONS OF THE NATION SHOULD RECEIVE THE
BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES: THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC COAST AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE BLOCKED NORTHERN STREAM AND THE WESTERLIES ARE LEADING THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ON THE USUAL MERRY CHASE. STUCK WITH THE RELIABLE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH HAPPENS TO AFFORD A MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 5 AND 6. COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE COULD SPELL THE LAST ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WESTERN WAVE SHOULD PULL ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE--A WELCOME REPLENISHMENT FOR THE UPCOMING SUMMER DRYNESS.

CISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1107 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2013

.MORNING UPDATE...
PERSISTENT NW WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF NORTH AND PARS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAS WARRANTED LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON'S PROJECTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST OF NORTH GA. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME... WITH A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIP FORECAST ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EST FRI MAR 1 2013

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE
229 PM EST FRI MAR 1 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10
PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROME...TO
CANTON...TO GAINESVILLE...TO HOMER.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW...WITH 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADS

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE 30S.

Nothing for us though?

I wanted to see snow here! :(

Here's what you need to read:

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST UPPER ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. MODELS AGREE THIS DEEPENING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE BASE... AND DRIVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD... SUPPLYING AMPLE LIFT/FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED DEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO BRING A THREAT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTH GA... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BEGINNING BY MID-LATE EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH GA AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 5-7 AM SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AREAS SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST ANY INITIAL LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 10PM TO MIDNIGHT... AND POSSIBLY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD ATLANTA THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME... EXPECT THE GREATER CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROME TO CANTON TO GAINESVILLE TO
HOMER LINE WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DEEPEST AND PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGEST.

Do you think we could get accumulation here in North Gwinnett?

Anything new for middle of next week?

Regarding the next week system a few minutes ago by a meteorologist:

"It is the track we all want. The folks posting about boundary layer temps or sketchy thermal profiles may not be familiar with how these upward velocities lead to the dynamic cooling of a temperature column crashing with very heavy precip rates or they are purposefully trolling the board.

OR they don't seem to understand that the GFS's large-scale resolution won't resolve the small-scale effects of a an axis of snow on the northwestern side of this upper low... snow accumulation maps aren't even valid right now due to the small-scale processes of the deform axis.

Either way, you're wasting your time talking temps at this time given what is projected on the northwest side of the system.

That is an absolute money track on the 18z and it's one we need to continue in future runs"

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
853 PM EST FRI MAR 1 2013

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW PREVAILED ACROSS TN FROM JACKSON THROUGH NASHVILLE TO
THE TRI-CITES AREA. KHTX (Huntsville) RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW PUSHING INTO CHATTANOOGA TN AND NORTHWEST GA AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30'S. HOWEVER...LIGHT SNOW WAS
INDICATED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN AND
SURROUNDING RIDGES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30'S. A FEW PUBLIC
REPORTS OF VERY SMALL SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTA THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH GA TONIGHT AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA FOR NORTH GA LOOKS APPROPRIATE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROME
THROUGH CANTON AND GAINESVILLE TO HOMER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

Looking more and more like next weeks system will be rain for us. Right now the models are showing an unfavorable track for our area.

I hate Georgia winters...

Anyone over in Oconee seeing any snow right now?

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1319Z SAT MAR 02 2013

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

NCEP IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD DURING THIS NEXT WEEK. A CWD DECLARATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT.. WE'LL PROVIDE UPDATES TO THIS STATUS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Glad I got my milk and bread. LOL Man, I'm ready for Spring!!!

Funny story for you wonderful folks. I'd been to Europe as a kid with my parents but never during winter so snow was only experienced vicariously through friends and family living abroad. Anyway, I came to the US late in the year and stayed with my Auntie in Hyde Park, NY. I had never seen or physically experienced snow. It was a Friday morning, I woke up around 7AM, opened my curtains to allow the morning light in and it was white outside. Back then I slept in my boxers and without hesitation I run downstairs, past my family having breakfast before they left for school and work into the driveway. In my boxers, no shoes or socks, no shirt I run out into the snow. It was one of the best days of my life until I realized it wasn't some warm powder. The idiot in me run into the house, straight to the kitchen and put my hands over the gas stove. What a mistake!!! I thought my arms were going to fall off. Nevertheless I've loved snow ever since and made it a point to introduce my kids and family whenever I could.

I heard there is some snow in Snellville - anyone seeing it? I'm guessing just a flurry or two.

Pretty, did you get some neat photos?

Now that it has come to pass that:

The Snellville City Council has actually held a meeting that didn’t resemble a WWE pay per view special.

The world is once again Pope-less.

We have all been “Sequestered” and it's starting to snow /rain.

I guess it’s time for another Eagles Tour…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Freezes_Over

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROGGED MUCAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIMITED
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE LEFT OUT
THUNDER MENTION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILES
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
IN THE WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT LIMITED
MENTION OF SPOTTY SNOW AND RAIN MIX. APPEARS AS THOUGH FAR NE
PORTION WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND WILL BE UPDATED IF
WARRANTED IN FUTURE. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1320Z SUN MAR 03 2013

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL PROBABLY BE PUT IN PLACE LATER TODAY.. AFTER THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS AND COORDINATION/DISCUSSIONS ARE CONDUCTED.. DUE TO
THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN REGION DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.

MORE TO COME ON CWD ISSUANCE AFTER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMPLETE. THE CWD WILL INSURE A MORE RELIABLE FLOW OF DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT TO NWS AND NCEP CENTERS.. DURING THIS WINTER STORM EVENT.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

I guess if you want snow, go to Sugar Mountain:
http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/

Just reported a minute ago: "It's snowing here in Marietta. Rooftops turning white slightly. Very light dusting in progress."

In the meantime, we bask in a brisk sunny day. :-(

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
910 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA WITH FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FALL LINE. THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION THROUGH NOON ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA...AND MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IN ADDITION TO WHAT FELL OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO DISCUSS THE
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS IN ROADS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA ARE ANCHORED ON A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TN AND EASTERN AL. ALL MODELS DEPICT THIS SHORT WAVE VERY WELL AND WILL BASE ENDING TIME OF PRECIP AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ON THE SHORT WAVE AXIS. THIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST GEORGIA BY NOON...AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

At least someone got some:

...SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.10AM UPDATE...BACON COUNTY 911 DISPATCH HAS CONFIRMED THAT SNOW
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE COUNTY AND THEY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

Also, Waycross had flurries.

So much for that "blocking" pattern out in the Atlantic, huh? Looks like instead of the coldest weather this winter, a really warm week coming up. What y'all want to be they'll be DEAD ON this summer when they start talking "the hottest weather of the season is on tap"????

Actually, from WXsouth.com yesterday:

"There are no easy solutions to how this Upper Low is going to evolve. The models are not much more help than they were yesterday and in fact are a little more disparate. The reason this is going to be hard to nail down is the fact that no model has a good handle on the system right now. The closed block is going nowhere anytime soon so that will force the ULL to begin to dive soon, but the models disagree on when it starts. Some runs have had the ULL begin to pinch away from the parent flow (splitting) earlier than others, and some wait until it’s in the Eastern Dakotas. When it begins to separate, the angle will be important downstream and will allow the ULL to begin to take on a classic look. But the hard part is knowing how well developed the ULL will become and what it’s angle of approach and orientation will be once it begins to cut into western Tennessee Valley."

Not sayin' that we'll get anything at all though...

Better hurry up, suppose to be here tomorrow.

LOL!!! The upper air low will cause a surface low to form to it's south overnight.

Here's the latest 500 MB map (http://www.daculaweather.com/2013_03/500mb.gif), the circle over the Dakota's is the upper level low. To the south is where the surface low will form and you can already see it forming over Oklahoma in this image: http://www.daculaweather.com/2013_03/pmsl.gif

Both of those images came from this link: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php

Here's a link to a map of the forecast track of the lows. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_sig_lows.php

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
302 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S THIS WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

Anyone besides me and Tommy ready for spring?

Both sides of the Smokies will have snow, this is for the Tennessee side:

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* EVENT...SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE FAR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS.

And from the Greenville SC office:
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
347 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA...
FROM AVERY COUNTY SOUTH TO GRAHAM COUNTY. INCLUDING NORTHERN
JACKSON COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW... WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 5 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

ULL's are never easy to forecast for any person or computer. I'd like to see some snow here in Athens that sticks before March runs out. After that we're usually more likely to get bad storms and warmer weather.

SPRING!!! SPRING!!!! Sick of these "near misses". I'd rather them be no-chancers. LOL

Me too... But guess what, another cold period coming up after a weekend warm up.

From my buddy Larry this morning:

"Folks,
The 0Z Goofy, if you take it verbatim (it is a cold biased model...so we must keep that in mind), says spring will be over a week from today lol. Still ANOTHER chilly run for week two with very cold air lurking not too far north. Two Miller A's are modeled fwiw though neither producing wintry precip. Analogs, the Euro weeklies, and projected continued blocking say watch for a a good shot at renewed wintry wx mid month. Believe it or not, that could once again include some more of the coldest wx yet this winter! We'll see. Stay tuned.

Edit: no fewer than four of the original 14 analogs had five airmasses that produced either or both the coldest and the 2nd coldest airmasses of the entire winter between 3/10 and 3/20, inclusive! The coldest lows at KATL from these airmasses were as follows: 15, 17, 18, 18, and 19. Coldest so far this winter at KATL: 25.

Edit #2: KATL Wintry precip. from these four analogs: 0.3" on 3/9, 4.2" on 3/13
Measurable wintry precip. from other 10 analogs: 4.0" on 3/14, 1.2" on 3/11-12

So, very eventful wx just in mid-March, alone, from nearly half the analogs (for just the short period 3/9-20!!). That's a pretty strong analog signal and implies well above the overall climo based chance for that kind of thing.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
916 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY.

• LOCATIONS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

• WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AND CONTINUED GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

• TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ALL OF WEDNESDAY.

• IMPACTS...SMALL TREES IN SATURATED SOILS MAY BE TOPPLED.
DRIVING...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
20 MPH...OR GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR STRONGER ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

From the SPC a few minutes ago:

A RECENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH STORMS LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN THE EML AND FORCED BY HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING...LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH A RISK FOR SOME HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA WITH ACTIVITY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
950 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY
BLACK ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY.

The sunny skies and rapid temperature warm up tends to make me a little nervous about severe weather this afternoon. The SPC has outlined our area as a Slight Risk for severe later today. With the sunny skies over north and central Georgia, lapse rates will increase as the air heats. I'm just about 60ºF at DaculaWeather.com and it's rising more than 5º/hour right now. Mid to upper 60's may be possible and would be gas on the fire for severe weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1058 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA NOW IN SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC. SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH 50 KNOTS OF 0-1KM
SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AFTER 18Z.
QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY WHICH IS GIVING SOME CONCERN AS
MODELS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE LATEST RUN WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG
OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTH. WHEN TAKEN WITH SHEAR
VALUES...NAM12 NOW SHOWING STP APPROACHING 4 THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CONDITIONAL DAY...BUT GIVEN SURGE OF DEWPOINTS AND
CURRENT CLEARING ALLOWING FOR INSOLATION...AM LEANING TOWARD AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALABABA...NORTHWESTERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051911Z - 052115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS AL AND SRN MS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN AND WRN GA BEFORE 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXISTED AS OF 19Z BUT GRADUAL THETA-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S F JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND SHEAR ACTS ON THE UPDRAFTS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN LOCALIZED SWATHS.

I'm a little late to the party but here's the latest watch:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.
IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 68 COUNTIES INCLUDING GWINNETT, WALTON, BARROW AND ALL OF METRO ATLANTA.

Two part comment here:

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

STORMS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TO THE WEST...AT LEAST FROM A LINEAR PERSPECTIVE WITH INTERMITTENT THUNDER FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND OF MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS EARLIER PARTIAL CLEARING THAT TOOK PLACE LOCALLY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. COULD BE THAT THESE INCREASED TEMPS ALONG WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY FRY MID LEVELS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BUT FEEL LARGER SALE FORCING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AND ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SHEAR WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH 50 TO 60 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND 300 TO 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH. HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN MORE
SPEED SHEAR THAN DIRECTIONAL OWING TO A STORM MODE MORE LINEAR AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS AND HAIL THUS FAR WITH SEVERAL HAIL
REPORTS ALREADY UPSTREAM. ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A MIXED BAG WITH
WIND AND HAIL THE MOST LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH
STP PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN HWO
AS WELL AS GRAPHICAST ADVERTISEMENT OF TIMING AND IMPACTS.

... continued

... continued

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATTENTION TURNS QUICKLY TO A DEVELOPING WINTER SCENARIO FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE PROFILE REMAINS NORTH...FORCING IS STRONG AFTER 03Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH 17Z WED. SREF OF COURSE IS MOST BULLISH ON AMOUNTS WITH WIDESPREAD 2" WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MODEST AT A HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH.
REGARDLESS LOOKS TO BE AN INCONVENIENCE FOR MORNING COMMUTE AND
WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. INDICATING ISOLATED 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OK... last comment on this wasted blog post... :-) But just a reminder that winter isn't over yet.

Again, from Mr. Sutherland this morning:

"The combination of strong blocking (AO-) and an EPO- for perhaps the next two weeks suggests a potent pattern that could feature an Arctic outbreak and an opportunity for snowfall. The latest objective analogs from the GFS ensembles centered around March 16 include March 17, 1958 and March 1, 1960, dates that came shortly before major snowstorms."

I know, everyone is ready for spring after another dismal winter, and you don't want to hear about more cold weather, but it won't be much longer now. Our first SCCA Solo event is this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway followed by a National Tour down at South Georgia Motorsports Park near Valdosta the following weekend. I don't want rain, and I don't want cold. Please.

LOL!!! I agree Terrie! Time for spring.
I drive through downtown Snellville on my way to work, and it looks like they had about 1/2" dusting this morning. First snow I've seen all year! Keep looking out the window, you might see some before it moves away.

At least someone is getting some:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND PATCHY BLACK ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013

GAZ001>004-011-012-019>023-070215-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-
905 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...

SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES...WITH ISOLATED...BRIEF...MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
FROM AROUND TRENTON...DALTON AND CHATSWORTH TO NEAR ROME...CALHOUN
AND CARTERSVILLE EASTWARD TO AROUND CANTON...CUMMING AND GAINESVILLE.
HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING NOW AND EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MIDDAY...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED. MOST
AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING...WITH UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS. ROADS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF SNOW...
BUT SLICK...ICY SPOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING.

I know... I just had to comment one more time. :-) I can TALK about some weather. :-)

Since we've busted several times this winter for snow, we aren't the only ones. Washington DC was suppose to get 8-12" of snow... they got rain instead. That rain really puts a crimp in the accumulation totals.

At least we didn't bust THAT bad!

Not many people will see this now since the blog has scrolled off the front page, but I was cracking up reading this. Tell me if this doesn't sound familiar?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/danoshinsky/washington-dc-is-the-worst-during-a-snowstorm

LOL!!!!! Here are some quotes from the the Mid-Atlantic subforum of a weather site I visit during the major snow bust:

"I get the same feeling hanging around here right now that I get when I'm at a funeral."

"Those are some long a** posts telling us how it didn't snow when all I need to do is look outside and know "

"It's in the mid 40s right now in midtown. Like I said, I'd be surprised if we get more than 5". That said, N & E of here could get a lot more."

"^Who cares what NYC is getting?"

"Lesson learned for me: ignore any and all future NAM model outputs."

"The analysis of all the model runs was really good with this storm. We dissected them from top to bottom. Hashed out all the fine details. Rode them to the highest high even as snow was already falling. The one thing we kinda missed was that they were all f***ing wrong."

"Did I really just read 2 complaints about getting 10+. Anyone see the movie falling down? I might re-enact tomorrow."

"it's march this stuff is going to melt in 45 seconds tomorrow"

"^Since when does rain melt?"

... continued

"Serious question: Will anyone actually examine why the NAM was so off here? I mean, last night we were all high-fiving how "the NAM had scored a coup, the NAM was back, the NAM led the way."..... Err,... It was a pretty big fail, even for a model that at one point suggest 70 inches of snow would fall in part of New England in the Boston Blizzard 4 weeks ago."

"I don't want to be a hater, but if NYC gets 12 inches....it won't be pretty."

"^If I had to bet I'd say they are going to feel the pain we felt today. Reading that forum is like "the NAM looks cold" sounds like us 24 hours ago. Look where that got us."

"why is WBAL interrupting Ellen to report on this storm?"

"^Better question is why are you watching Ellen?"

"I'll check...maybe we ran the NAM upside down."