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Winter, If You Can't Get Here on Time, Get Here When You Can

Better late than never!

It's looking more and more like March will come roaring in like a lion next week. I've been talking about the possibilities of cold weather returning, and it appears to be on track as we thought. 

As I've talked about before, the models just didn't get this winter right, the cold was always two weeks away, the rain was always in between the cold. They just could never quite get their act together to make a meaningful winter weather event.  But it's looking like all of that is about to change toward the middle to the end of next week as we enter an active transitional period. A large cold trough will settle across the eastern US toward next weekend, bringing us some of the coldest temperatures of the winter season. The models have been hinting at the cold returning and now they are all converging on that same solution. The HPC had this to say this morning:

"ANOTHER TROUGH IN THIS SERIES IS ON ITS HEALS BACK ACROSS THE WEST MIDWEEK...BUT EXPECTED RAPID UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION OUT FROM THE ERN PACIFIC HAS GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT TO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED WRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY FORCE THE LEAD IMPULSE TO AMPLIFY WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO QUITE AN AMPLIFIED AND COLD E-CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. DOWNSTREAM...TRENDS CONTINUED TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY BLOCKY (NEGATIVE) NAO PATTERN EMERGING IN THE NRN ATLANTIC HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH LATITUDE HEIGHT RISES FEEDING WWD ACROSS SRN GREENLAND TOWARD ERN CANADA."

All winter when it appeared we would get cold, the blocking never materialized and the cold would never make it this far south, and instead would get pushed east. Not this time. And according to a comment I made in my previous post, Mr Sutherland seems to think that it's also possible to get some cross-flow polar air headed our way:

"Perhaps lending support to the idea, some of the ensemble guidance is now suggesting that the EPO could go negative during the first week in March. If that happens, prospects of at least a period of cross-polar flow could increase. That would tap into the cold in Russia and bring some this way. We'll just have to see how this evolves."

That's cold we don't want, but it's also not something we'll really have to worry about here. Seven of the coldest places in the northern hemisphere are in Russia this morning with low temperatures ranging from -57ºF to -67º F. What would happen to us if this pattern were to flip and that cold came over here? And seriously, it's not out of the question at some point in the future (not this year!). 

Keep in mind, some of Atlanta's largest snow storms occurred in March. Because March is a transitional month, you get very dynamic systems that can create a large snowstorm over a large area. With the cold in place as the models are depicting, it forces upper waves and disturbances to ride around the base of the trough. Once they rotate toward the Gulf, it can cause a low pressure to form what is known as a "Miller A" type storm. These tend to become "Nor'Easters" as they pass up the eastern seaboard. The 1993 "Storm of the Century" was one of those. 

Based on the most recent model trends, the first week of March will turn colder. So once again, my buddy Larry from Savannah, the master of Georgia weather statistics, had this to share about the expected temperatures for the first week of March for Atlanta:

"Per the 18Z Goofy (GFS) per MeteoStar, the average temp for KATL for March 1-5 will be 36 F. Now, I fully realize that the GFS has a cold bias, however in (KATL is Hartsfield airport) this case, the blocking is so impressive and the models have been so consistent that I can believe this 36º as a legit possibility. A 36º F would be a whopping 6º F colder than mid January! It is 15º F below normal. Also, KATL's coldest day to this point was 2/17's 36º F! Even if this run were 4º F too cold, it would still be a cold 40º F, which is 2º F colder than mid Jan.'s norm.

How cold would an average temperature of 36º F for March 1-5 be in relation to history at KATL?

  • Since 1930, only one 3/1-5 was colder: the 28º F of 1960. 1960's March 1-5 had a major ZR (freezing rain) as well as 0.8" of snow.
  • Tied for 2nd were four cases of 37's: 1943, 1975, 1978, and 1980. An impressive two of those 3/1-5's produced measurable snows: 1943 (0.4") and 1980 (2.7"). 1978 produced a T. 1975 had no snow.
  • Tied for 6th at 38º were 1947 and 2002. 1947 had two days with traces. 2002 had none.
  • Tied for 8th at 39º -were 1942 and 1962. 1942 had a major (3.7") whereas 1962 had two traces.
  • Tied for 10th at 40º were 1930 (none), 1954 (none), and 2009 (major of 4.2").

 So, to summarize, the coldest eleven March 1-5's since 1930 at KATL, whose values ranged from 29 to 40 F, had multi-inch snow 3 out of the 11, had measurable snow 5 of the 11, at least a trace of snow 7 of the 11, and a major freezing rain once. So, 4 of the 11 had either a major freezing rain or a multi-inch snow. Those are pretty respectable odds for just a five day period."

Then today, Larry added a few more stats for us to ponder:

"How cold could March 1-5 be relative to history in the southeast? I have the KATL stats. Keeping in mind the GFS cold bias, the 6Z GFS per MeteoStar has KATL at 31º F, which would be a whopping 20 below normal!!

Here are the coldest March 1-5's 1930-2012:

  • -28 1960 major ZR and 0.8" S/IP
  • -37 1943 0.4" S/IP
  • -37 1975
  • -37 1978 T of S/IP
  • -37 1980 2.7" of S/IP
  • -38 1947 2 T's of S/IP
  • -38 2002
  • -39 1942 3.7" S/IP
  • -39 1962 2 T's of S/IP
  • -40 1930
  • -40 1954
  • -40 2009 4.2" S/IP

 Even if the 6Z GFS is off by 5º F, it would still be 36º F, the 2nd coldest since 1930!"

And finally... this from Steven Nelson, the Science and Operations Officer at the Atlanta NWS office:

"AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER WAVE WITH COLD
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT DIVES INTO PLAINS AND CARVES OUT BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A COLD PATTERN FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN. AS FOR
PRECIP...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON WED/THUR OVER NORTH GA.
CANT RULE OUT -SHRA/SHSN MIX OR EVEN ALL -SHSN AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500FT THURS/FRI. 850MB GFS/EC TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO -5C
WED NIGHT AND TO -10 TO -13C BY FRI/SAT. MAY BE HARD TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S ON SAT IF MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED."

Time is getting close, the models are very consistent now. This should be a fun next several weeks to watch. Stay tuned!

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North Georgia Weather February 24, 2013 at 11:38 AM
FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 350 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. * FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING * ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO CUMMING AND HOMER WITH AS MUCH AS TWO AND A HALF TO THREE AND HALF INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE AND VIDALIA. THIS ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COMES CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS PAST WEEKENDS HEAVY RAINS WHICH HAVE LEFT SOILS SATURATED AND RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING ALREADY HIGH. * LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS... DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.
North Georgia Weather February 24, 2013 at 12:14 PM
Love the Birmingham NWS guys... take a minute to read their latest AFD, someone is a natural at this: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_bmx.php BTW, what they are taking about, also applies here to some extent!
North Georgia Weather February 24, 2013 at 12:20 PM
Atlanta's AFD from this morning: TODAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE AREA, A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN AREAS FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND HAVE AREAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CRISP COUNTY. WILL SEE FRONT SETTLE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING THROUGH TENNESSEE AND THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING AND ONCE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...WE SHOULD SEE A STELLAR END TO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH. RESPITE FROM THE RAIN LOOKS QUITE SHORT LIVED AS POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CREATING A LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SOUTHEAST. ADD TO THIS RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND SHOULD SEE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH WEDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CAROLINAS, ADIABATIC OMEGA BECOMES MAXIMIZED DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS ANTICIPATED AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY. APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST BUT STILL HAVE A FEW ANALOGS WHICH POINT TO POTENTIAL ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SREF ADDS SOME VALIDITY TO THIS WITH PROBABILITY OF 50 PERCENT OF STP OF 1 OR GREATER TUESDAY MORNING.
Pat Thomas February 24, 2013 at 02:52 PM
"WE ARE GOING TO BE A PICKLE OF A SCENARIO AND ONE THAT IS QUITE COMPLICATED FOR EXPLAINING VIA WORDS...BUT WILL TRY." LOL!
Tommy Hunter February 25, 2013 at 02:08 PM
Steve, Hate to be a pooper, but a couple guys I know around here really well that keep up with this stuff religiously (you probably know at least one of them) tell me that the blocking in the Atlantic isn't going to set up as some have thought but remain as it has been shunting the cold air up to the northeast. Your thoughts?
North Georgia Weather February 25, 2013 at 02:21 PM
I don't think the NAO block will be the problem this time. What I'm more concerned about is the Pacific ridge holding together (or more specifically, not). All winter long big Pacific lows have kept crashing what ridges we get out west. That ridge must be in place to get the amplification needed to form a nice SW low. So without both ridges, the chances to any sustained cold as well as winter precip goes down. The HPC still favors a +PNA, -NAO, and big western ridge as of this AM: UPSTREAM, A DYNAMNIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN US WED/THU. DIGGING ENERGY WILL FEED MORE SHARPLY INTO THE S-CENTRAL US BY FRI TO THE LEE OF A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH AND WESTERN US RIDGE COUPLET DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THIS LEADS TO QUITE AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN US RIDGE AND COLD EASTERN US TROUGH (POSITIVE PNA PATTERN) BY SAT JUST AS HEIGHT RISES FEED WESTWARD FROM GREENLAND INTO EASTERN CANADA AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS MAY LEAD TO EASTERN US COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL SAT-MON AND HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOW MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. A retrograding ridge over Greenland into eastern Canada gives us the west based -NAO. So lets see how it evolves, we're been tricked before this winter, let's see if more tricks are up the sleeve of 'Ole Man Winter.
North Georgia Weather February 25, 2013 at 03:29 PM
From Robert Gamble at http://www.wxsouth.com this morning: No rest for Meteorologists from now until Mid March. The upcoming pattern will feature the worst part of Winter, hard to believe, but true...for the Southern and Mid Atlantic Region. The ECMWF model has been going wild with a MASSIVE retrograding flow in the northern latitudes. What this means, is that all the cold air up north will get shoved south. To boot, western ridging and an extreme negative anomaly will develop in the Southern States, with storms being forced further south than normal for March. To be honest, it's the best looking Winter Storm pattern in years for the Southern and MidAtlantic states. I'll have a full detailed write up today at www.wxsouth.com Check out the negative NAO (its in extreme territory--not seen since historic Winter of 2010/11).
North Georgia Weather February 25, 2013 at 10:24 PM
Here's an excerpt from the Huntsville NWS AFD this afternoon: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_hun.php THE COLD TEMPS NOTED ABOVE, COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GFS SHOWED THIS YESTERDAY, WITH THE ECMWF JOINING IN LAST NIGHT, AND WITH ITS 12Z RUN TODAY. AM NOT THINKING MORE THAN A DUSTING (IF THAT) AT THIS TIME, GIVEN IT WILL BE EARLY MARCH. BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE OCCURRED REGIONALLY IN THE LATE WINTER MOST NOTABLY THE MID MARCH 1993 SUPER STORM. And a follow up to the previous comment. Robert Gamble at WXsouth is an expert at southeast winter weather events, and has an awesome track record to back it up. These periods coming up are when Robert is in his wheelhouse, so I put a lot of weight in what he says. And while we're talking... I'd like to be clear about something. The information you get from me here, is pulled from many different very credible sources. I take all of these varying opinions, analysis, etc, and give you a preview to what these paid professionals are seeing. Most weather sources won't give you much information too far in advance, it's not good for their image to be wrong. But I guess I don't have that same image, I'll tell you what they're talking about. And no, models aren't always accurate, why do think there are dozens of different models out there? ... continued
North Georgia Weather February 25, 2013 at 10:37 PM
... continued There have been very few meteorologist that got this winter correct. It was a very unpredictable winter, despite signs that would normally point otherwise. And I think that was the frustrating part for many people, the predictions from the models (weeks and months in advance) were, in my opinion, terrible. You finally get to the point to where you don't want to look ahead more than 3-4 days because you have no faith in what's being presented, at least that's the way I get. So sometimes when it looks like I'm crying wolf, just remember, I'm just the messenger. :-)
North Georgia Weather February 25, 2013 at 11:31 PM
Again, not saying this will happen, but 1960 is one of the years that the meteorologist are talking about as one of the top analogs for the upcoming changes that we expect to see. That year had above normal Dec - Jan, colder Feb, and then came March. Great study by the NWS office in Greer SC for March of that year : http://www.daculaweather.com/studies/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf
Tommy Hunter February 26, 2013 at 12:29 AM
Don't worry about your image. If it's like mine, there's no where for you to go, but up. LOL
Ed Varn February 26, 2013 at 01:02 AM
NGW, hope you understand I was only teasing you. NO weatherperson can be accurate all the time. As I said, it's an inexact science on it's best days. I was just having some fun with you. Now, if you can start putting all these projections in language the common man (i.e.,ME) can understand, I'll be even happier!
Jon Evans February 26, 2013 at 02:47 AM
Any thoughts on when the upcoming changes are going to occur? I see chilly days Thursday through Sunday in the forecast but no snow chances. Then it seems it starts to get a little milder. Is that it? Or is there more cold and and snow chances to come? If so do you see a time frame? I know this is what models maybe be showing and may or may not materialize but just thought I'd check on the latest.
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 09:16 AM
Euro weeklies just out: Week 2 (3/4-10) very, very cold. Week 3 (3/11-17) very cold. Week 4 (3/18-24) normal to barely below Precip.: week 2 dry; week 3 wet S GA to SE coast and normal elsewhere; week 4 wet; Strong west based -NAO and moderate -AO weeks 2-4; +PNA weeks 2-3; neutral PNA week 4
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 09:49 AM
4AM Atlanta AFD: GFS FLIRTS WITH VERY LOW QPF IN THE FAR NORTH EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES SATURDAY AS A SMALL BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE STATE UNTIL THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO MATERIALIZE. I HAVE CONFINED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY... WHEN I BUMP UP TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AND ATHENS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW 1/10TH OF AN INCH PER 12 HOUR PERIOD ON SATURDAY SO THIS CONTINUES TO BE A LOW QPF/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE SATURDAY CHANCES.
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 10:05 AM
From Larry: "To better put these Euro weeklies into perspective for the SE US, week 2 as a whole (3/4-10) is near mid January normals, for the SE coast too as cold as ~3-4 degrees below normal for mid-Jan. well inland! Of course, the individual coldest days would be quite a bit colder than that. Even week 3 (3/11-17) is still near mid Feb. normal levels with the individual coldest days probably a few degrees below normal for mid January! Finally, in week 4 (3/18-24), the SE returns to mid to late March levels for the week as a whole."
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 10:15 AM
The Extended from the HPC this morning (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php) highlights a strongly amplified western ridge, with the first shortwave riding around the base of the trough over our area near the weekend. The system that's currently out over the Pacific is very strong and crashes the western ridge. That will bring a slight moderation in temps before another strongly amplified system brings more cold and a chance of precip again.
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 11:20 AM
Since February 19th, I've had 3.82" of rain and still raining. The first round we had beginning around the 7th brought me 2.88". Throw in a few more days and my current total is 6.82" for the month. My 6 year average for February is 3.90" and Hartsfield Airport is 4.06". As you can see we're well above our monthly averages.
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 02:06 PM
From Jason, a meteorologist from Dahlonega a few minutes ago: "I'm liking the trends of this system on Saturday. I know it's not a blockbuster but getting any flakes is a win this winter. So far the trends have been to dig that shortwave a little further west for the past few runs. Saturday is looking pretty decent for snow showers across N AL, N GA, TN and most of N SC and NC. Maybe this will spark a coastal...who knows at this point. At least I think the air will be cold enough for a snow P-Type. GFS actually shows decent moisture across N GA from 6z Saturday to 6z Sunday."
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 02:24 PM
From Robert Gamble this morning on Facebook: "Still Watching the retrograding flow in the weather models, with building southern Greenland Block. Now the models are beginning to "see" this unusual pattern and are showing some signs of energy cutting southward, and this is when we'll have to really pay close attention to what "could" happen. The latest trends are for energy to dig southeast toward Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama areas and possibly close off. If it happens, and does so in time before exiting the Southeast Coast, then a storm would form. It's too early to say yet. The highest threat right now for the weekend storm is the eastern Carolina's and eastern Virginia, but that could change to include more. Even after this threat, there are more showing up several days later."
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 03:17 PM
WXSouth...: "If there's going to be a deep south Cutoff this weekend, Northeast vortex will have to get out of the way. Gonna be close"
North Georgia Weather February 26, 2013 at 03:24 PM
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 949 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013 - 12Z TUE MAR 05 2013 THE EUROPEAN CENTRE PRODUCT SUITE HAS PROVEN STABLE ENOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO RELY PRIMARILY UPON ITS DETERMINISTIC MODEL, WITH MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN THE CASE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE WITH WHICH TO QUIBBLE THROUGH DAY 5 AMONG ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH THE NATION DOMINATED BY A BROAD, POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE. BY DAY 6, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENERGY WILL BE POOLING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS--THE REFLECTION OF A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. BY DAY 7, A NEW CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH A WINTRY WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BLOCKY PATTERN THERETOFORE WILL INSURE DEEP-LAYER COLD AIR IN SITU, WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE FUELING WHAT WILL PERHAPS BE ONE OF THE LAST GASPS OF WINTER FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST.
North Georgia Weather February 27, 2013 at 11:18 AM
From Mr Sutherland this morning: "Since February 19 when I discussed the CFSv2 model's coming into agreement with the ENSO-teleconnection analogs, that model has continued to trend colder nationwide for March. At the same time, the GFS ensembles have moved into strong consensus that a deep blocking regime is about to unfold and that the blocking regime likely will last for an extended period of time. The idea of a long-duration block that could last into the March 10-20 period was set forth in a previous post. 1960 remains among my leading analogs. In terms of the objective analogs, 3/11/1958, 2/17/1969, and 2/17/2010 are showing up for the 8-day period centered around March 6. KU snowstorms occurred in all three years 5-8 days after the dates shown. March 1960 also had a blizzard. In short, the pattern is a potent one."
Jon Evans February 27, 2013 at 06:15 PM
Do you see anything coming together for this next potential system Friday-Sunday? The forecast seems to be shifting toward increase in chances, but I guess that could all change by tomorrow.
North Georgia Weather February 27, 2013 at 07:20 PM
It's all very iffy right now, the models go back and forth. A local meteorologist posted this today: "Weenies look away from the Euro early next week, the ensembles from last night had massive spread, no models right now are handling this pattern. Not saying snow is impossible for some but expect a ton of waffling, even more than normal the next several days."
Mitch February 27, 2013 at 07:59 PM
What? The waffling models are Euro Weenies? Just bring me some snow. I'd like to chuck a heavy wet snowball at my annoying neighbor's cat who uses my landscaping as a litter box.
Terrie R February 27, 2013 at 08:27 PM
Mitch you are funny! I too have a neighbor's cat doing the same thing! Think that snowball will help? Sure would be nice to try!
North Georgia Weather February 27, 2013 at 11:33 PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 255 PM EST WED FEB 27 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...NORTH GEORGIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF UPPER LOW AND THIS MAY PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW BUT TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE. HAVE DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AREA NORTH OF ATLANTA AND ATHENS. TIMING ON POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z GFS COMING IN MORE MOIST...BUT 12Z ECMWF NOT QUITE SO ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EXTREME NORTH BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. MEX GUIDANCE COMING IN COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT AGAIN ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS DID CHANGE THE WX GRIDS FOR SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND... MAINLY TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE /PARTICULARLY THE SNOW LINE/ JUST A TAD FARTHER SOUTH. USED A QPF BLEND SINCE NEW HPC GUIDANCE NOT IN YET AND FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD ENDED UP WITH SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS TO WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AT BEST AN INCH AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT.
Tommy Hunter February 28, 2013 at 12:02 AM
In my opinion, if it ain't a threat of at least 2 inches in downtown Atlanta, it shouldn't even be mentioned. This ain't the Stone Age any more. Most folks here aren't from here and have seen snow before. It's no more to get excited--or worried about--than a few sprinkles would be. They tickle me with all this talk of temperatures and frozen precip and then conclude with "only at highest elevations". LOL Guess what guys. NOBODY lives at the "highest elevations". Just my daily rant. Sorry Steve.
Jim S February 28, 2013 at 12:32 AM
Tommy, Some folks, like me, aren't from here and have NEVER had to deal with temperatures colder than 40...and that was considered bitter cold weather! I have been here 7 years, and I think Georgia has given me everything it can..ice, snow, tornadoes...where are the locusts! :)

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